Election special: meet your candidates (and predictions)
Election special: meet your candidates (and predictions)
Predictions, trends and local candidate interviews
Welcome to this special edition of New Forest Business News. It’s election week and I’ve been working hard behind the scenes to bring you the best information possible surrounding the general election.
Today we’re meeting our local candidates for New Forest East and New Forest West, sharing some predictions and trends.
I will then send a maximum of two emails to you on election day itself, Thursday, and one on Friday after the results. The election day post will have a link to a live feed you can check throughout the day and night with real-time updates from me.
I’ll be in the media room at the New Forest count on Thursday reporting into the early hours, so wish me luck for the all nighter. (I’m usually in my jammies by 7pm!)
Here’s how you can get involved…
Email me editor@newforestusinessnews.co.uk e.g. your views on the election or how the results will impact you or your business.
Follow me on X (Twitter) @NFBizNews for more live updates on the day.
Many national media outlets have publicly announced which party they support. New Forest Business News will remain neutral, and we have given all candidates an opportunity to share their key messages with readers.
And remember your photo ID when visiting polling stations so you can vote!
Kerri L Watt
Editor
Latest ‘Google’ searches on the election…
“When do postal votes need to be posted UK” search up 1950% in the last week.
Top general election search (last 7 days): When is the general election?
Top ‘who is my… candidate? (last 7 days): *Labour (*2nd Conservative, 3rd Reform)
Southern England is searching ‘Tactical voting’ the most.
England’s search interest in parties (last 7 days): Conservative 11%, Labour 37%, LibDem 12%, Green 5%, Reform UK 35%
Top Rishi Sunak search (the last 7 days): How old is Rishi Sunak?
Top voting quotes: “Who should I vote for?”
(Statistics taken from Google Trends July 01, 2024)
Predictions
Many election polls are making headlines and going viral on social media, but nothing is certain, and most candidates New Forest Business News has spoken to are unable to predict the winner.
Here are a few polls and predictions for our constituencies and nationally…
Electoral Calculus predicts the probability of Labour being the largest party at 100%.
ThisVoteCounts.co.uk predicts a Conservative win for New Forest East with 34% of votes (Labour 24%, Reform 21%, LibDem 14%).
…and a Conservative win for New Forest West with 37% of votes (Labour 25%, LibDem 16%, Reform 15%).
The BBC predicts Labour will have 35-45% of all votes.
The i newspaper pulled eight MRP polls together: predicting a Conservative win in both New Forest West and New Forest West East.
The Economist predicts Labour will win 99 of the 210 south England seats.
Meet your local candidates
All 14 local candidates for New Forest East and New Forest West have been approached by New Forest Business News for comment.
We have been able to speak with over half of all candidates and have included parts of our interviews below.
They were asked…
“What is your involvement with local businesses? Are there any policies relating to businesses you know about, feel strongly toward or want to support?”
New Forest West Liberal Democrats - Jack Davies
“We want to make sure that businesses are supported.
“We hope to help small businesses and sole traders who are hit by capital gains tax at the low end. And we want to reform business rates because we don’t think it works at the moment or is fair for small businesses.
“A big thing that businesses have told me also has been crime and shoplifting.
“There's a long-term issue here of underfunding of police, moving community policing, like other services, to bigger ‘hubs’, which is an easy way to save money, but it doesn’t work. But it doesn't actually work in terms of the effectiveness in the community. You need police out in the community on the beat.”
“We want to make sure that businesses are supported.”
Jack Davies, New Forest West Liberal Democrats candidate
New Forest West Animal Welfare Party - Gavin Ridley
“I run my own business and am worried at how small businesses struggle in today's move to an online world.
“Small businesses, particularly in areas dependent on tourism, must be supported.
“I appreciate the difficulties the pandemic caused. We need to ensure that we don't get 'shut down' by further pandemic crisis. The AWP's bold policies concerning transition to a more plant-based way of life are a way that we can improve human health to relieve pressures on the NHS.
“Agriculture is an important industry in the area. AWP is focussed on helping agricultural businesses move to an arable model, given the shift in societal attitudes which are inevitable and adding to the strain faced by farmers.
“We seek to incentivise the transition to welfare-led smaller scale farming systems and to protect against low-welfare imports following the UK's departure from the EU.”
“Small businesses, particularly in areas dependent on tourism, must be supported.”
Gavin Ridley, New Forest East Animal Welfare Party candidate
New Forest West Conservative Party - Desmond Swayne
“You go into politics because you have a view about how things should be run and how they could be run better.
“I came into the Conservative Party just as Maggie Thatcher took the leadership who transformed the party and made it business-friendly again. She made our labour markets flexible once more. I’ve always been a free trader, free marketeer, believing fundamentally it is all about the economy.
“If we don’t have a thriving economy then you will not be able to afford any of the other things that everybody is demanding, for instance, improvements in social services, the NHS and education. All of that hangs on healthy businesses and growing trade.
“I do surgeries every Friday but with businesses I visit their premises and go and see them. It will often be a collective of companies. I also have a business club that meets three times a year to talk through issues.”
“I believe fundamentally it is all about the economy.”
Desmond Swayne, New Forest West Conservative Party candidate
New Forest West Green Party - Anna Collar
“I love to shop locally where I can, and often head to the high streets. Greens recognise the huge value of small businesses.
“They make our high streets lively and busy places bringing their profits back into the community, helping to grow the local economy.
“We will seek to introduce a minimum wage of £15 an hour for all, no matter your age, and give local authorities £2bn per year to provide grants to help businesses decarbonise.
“The Green Party are also pro-EU. We’d rejoin when the situation is right, we all know the damage Brexit has done to the imports and exports within the EU for small businesses.”
“Small businesses make our high streets lively and busy places bringing their profits back into the community, helping to grow the local economy.”
Anna Collar, New Forest West Green Party candidate
New Forest West Labour Party - Sally Johnston
“It doesn’t matter how good your plans are, they won’t work without a thriving economy. I am committed to supporting business particularly self-employed people who are the life blood of our local economy.
“Businesses tell me that rates are a very contentious issue. We will replace the business rates system so we can raise the same revenue but in a fairer way.
“I think the decline of our high streets is a serious concern. We need to find ways to rejuvenate our high street to reflect the changing shopping habits.
“Shopkeepers tell me that shoplifting is on the increase. We are committed to having more police on the streets so that people can feel confident that this sort of crime is being taken seriously.”
“I am committed to supporting business, particularly self-employed people, who are the life blood of our local economy.”
Sally Johnston, New Forest West Labour Party candidate
New Forest West Reform UK - Reginald Chester-Sterne
“I am a director involved in several local companies so know the trials and tribulations facing businesses.
“Raising the tax threshold to £20,000 will remove a vast swathe of people from the tax system. In addition, for a minimum of 3 years, front line NHS workers would have a threshold of £30,000.
“Being involved in businesses, I know how difficult it can be to employ staff. They need to live locally and have the means to travel to work. Also, the benefits system needs changing. People are trapped at a certain level where work does not pay.”
New Forest East Labour Party - Sasjkia Otto
“Last year I published a manifesto for self-employed people which argues that they need three different things to be okay.
“One is decent working conditions because if you're self-employed, if you're a business owner, you're still a worker. The second is a decent safety net. And the third one is support for your business to thrive.
“I developed this manifesto, with a range of different policies, some of which are actually part of Labour's plan to, for instance, tackle late payments, taking a fresh look at business rates, also strengthening and trade union rights for self-employed people.
“All of this is part of Labour's plan to support small businesses.”
New Forest East Liberal Democrats: Caroline Rackham
“Business is at the heart of getting our economy moving again.
“I acknowledge small business, particularly those on the high street are struggling. Business rates are a major issue. The Liberal Democrats have proposed removing business rates from businesses and placing them on commercial landowners instead, to help startups and allow businesses to reinvest more of their profits. Having no business rates, which should help them to take more of their profits and reinvest them.
“I'm very keen on listening to businesses. As Chair of Totton and Eling Town Council we started a business forum to listen to businesses and what they need from us.”
“Business is at the heart of getting our economy moving again.”
Caroline Rackham, New Forest East Liberal Democrats candidate
New Forest East Green Party - Simon King
“I run a local small business (I live in Pilley). We need to better support small and medium enterprises, which are the lifeblood of our economy and our communities.
“We also need to invest in the right areas for our future. That’s why Greens would push for massive investment in the green technologies of the future, including R&D, so that Britain can become a global leader in future sustainable solutions. Not only does this benefit the country as a whole but it proves secure, well-paid jobs.”
Other candidates for New Forest East are:
Conservative Party: Julian Lewis
Animal Welfare Party: Andrew Knight
Reform UK: Roy Swales
Official Monster Raving Loony Party: Mad Hatter
And other candidates for New Forest West are:
Social Democrat Party: Paul Simon
Follow @NFBizNews on X (Twitter) for live updates on the day and from the media room during election day.